| |
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 53.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Dallas's ranks #2 in that regard this season.His 59.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #88 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 55.5% this year puts him in the #87 percentile among running backs.This year, the Cowboys have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 68.1 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Cowboys enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.The defensive ends of Arizona have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Arizona have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Elliott finds himself in the #84 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 60 yards.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Dallas this week.Dallas has been the #24-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 36.0% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive tackles of Arizona have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Elliott for a -2.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #22-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.0% of their plays.The Cardinals defense has allowed 113 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #16-least in football.The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 4.52 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #19-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Arizona have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Dallas has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (14.0% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Cardinals have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #22-most in the NFL this year at 12.1% of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Elliott to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time. He projects for 64.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $9.21. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
