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Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 69.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 76.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 59.5% snap rate this year puts him in the #91 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 63.6% this year puts him in the #92 percentile among running backs.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.San Francisco has been the #5-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.8% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Mitchell finds himself in the #95 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 88 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and San Francisco's ranks #31 in that regard this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, San Francisco's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Rams defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #6-least in football.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 4.06 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #5-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Los Angeles have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Los Angeles have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Los Angeles have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Mitchell for a 0.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The linebackers of Los Angeles have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mitchell to exceed his player prop total 50.3% of the time. He projects for 69.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.41 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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