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Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Tennessee is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 44.4% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL), and they project to run 44.4% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 47.2% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked #24 against the run this year, holding opponents to 125 yards per game on the ground.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jaguars safeties have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 22.7% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hilliard is projected for -3.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Titans project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, Jacksonville's defense has allowed 4.49 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 39.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $2.76. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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