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D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
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D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 38.1% of Tennessee's carries this year -- #36 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 43.5% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL), and they project to run 43.5% of the time in this contest.The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 136 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 4.98 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 22.7% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 31.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #52 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Foreman is projected for 6.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#17-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Titans project to run 62.7 total plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 43.5% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers safeties have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 49.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.70. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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