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D'Onta Foreman

D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-105/-125) with an implied projection of 61.6 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -105.
  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Tennessee is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offense runs the ball 44.4% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL), and they project to run 44.4% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 47.2% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked #24 against the run this year, holding opponents to 125 yards per game on the ground.
  • Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Jaguars safeties have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 22.7% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Foreman is projected for 7.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Titans project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
  • In terms of efficiency, Jacksonville's defense has allowed 4.49 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).
  • Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Jaguars linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 52.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $7.84. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.

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