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Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 77.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 81.3% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season.Peoples-Jones ranks in the #72 percentile and has put up 8.89 yards per target this season.This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Steelers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Steelers safeties rank #31 in pass coverage.Cleveland's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Peoples-Jones open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Browns have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
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CONS:
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Peoples-Jones's 58.5% completion rate marks him in the #21 percentile among receivers.The Steelers's pass defense ranks #10-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 150 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Cleveland to drop back to pass on 57.3% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of earning targets, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.5% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Peoples-Jones for a 0.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 8.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #17-highest among NFL opponents.The Pittsburgh Steelers rank #15-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.8%.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.3% of the time (#22 in the NFL).Cleveland has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Peoples-Jones to exceed his player prop total 52.9% of the time. He projects for 37.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.31 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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