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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
  • Metcalf has been on the field for 83.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 85.8% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 25.4% -- #92 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.20 yards per target this season, ranking in the #70 percentile.
  • Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Seattle is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 63.1% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).

  • CONS:
  • Metcalf's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Metcalf is projected for -0.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Metcalf has been in the #49 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.5% completion rate.
  • San Francisco's defense has allowed 154 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.53) against the 49ers this season.
  • The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.5% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).
  • San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Seahawks project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.8% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 74.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.11. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.

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