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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Moore has been on the field for 86.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.4% of Carolina's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.3% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.9% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.The Panthers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina has faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.7%).
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CONS:
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Moore has been in the #30 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.2% completion rate.Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 48.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Moore's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moore is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.91 yards per target this season, ranking in the #45 percentile.Atlanta's defense has allowed 166 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#11-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.25) against the Falcons this season.The Carolina Panthers have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).The Panthers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.42. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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