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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 73.4 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been on the field for 91.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.8% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.5% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Steelers project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.Pittsburgh is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.1% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.3% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.79 yards per target this season, ranking in the #42 percentile.Johnson has been in the #57 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.9% completion rate.Kansas City's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.13) against the Chiefs this season.This offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 84.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.92. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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