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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 80.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 82.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been on the field for 90.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.0% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 30.8% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Minnesota's defense has allowed 193 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.33) against the Vikings this season.Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.4% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.80 yards per target this season, ranking in the #40 percentile.Johnson has been in the #53 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.8% completion rate.The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.9% of their targets this season, (#20-most in the league).Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.The Steelers project to run 62.7 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 94.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.43. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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