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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Smith ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 84.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Smith ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 93.6% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Smith ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.8% of passes this season.Smith ranks in the #70 percentile and has put up 8.89 yards per target this season.The WFT's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 187 yards per game this season.The Washington Football Team have allowed 8.98 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #27-highest among NFL opponents.The Washington Football Team rank #29-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.6%.As a unit, the WFT safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Smith open.Philadelphia has run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Eagles enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 54.3% of the time (#32 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 46.8% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Philadelphia's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.56 seconds on average this year (#26-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Smith for a 1.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Smith's 61.6% completion rate marks him in the #37 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the WFT cornerbacks rank #14 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Eagles have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Smith to exceed his player prop total 51.5% of the time. He projects for 57.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.34 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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