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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -115.
  • Smith has been on the field for 83.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 93.6% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 23.7% -- #90 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • New York's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).
  • The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.6% of their targets this season, (#9-most in the league).
  • Smith's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Smith has been in the #32 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.1% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #24-most yards per target (7.65) against the Giants this season.
  • New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.
  • Philadelphia is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 54.0% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 46.9% of the time in this contest (#32 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Eagles offensive line has given the QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#26-most time in the league).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.66 yards per target this season, ranking in the #66 percentile.
  • New York Giants safeties rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Eagles project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.96 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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