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DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins

Right now, DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Over: it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.

PROS:

In terms of playing time, Parker ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.7% of his team's snaps this season.

In terms of route running, Parker ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.8% of Miami's dropbacks this season.

In terms of earning targets, Parker ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.3% of passes this season.

The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.

The Saints's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 170 yards per game this season.

In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.1% of the time (#7 in the NFL).

THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 62.2% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

Miami's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.

Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

CONS:

As a unit, the Saints safeties rank #10 in pass coverage.

The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 60.6 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.

The Dolphins enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.

Miami's O-Line grades out as the #27-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Parker open.

Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).

NEUTRAL:

This week, THE BLITZ projects Parker for a -2.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.

Parker ranks in the #60 percentile and has put up 8.50 yards per target this season.

Parker's 60.8% completion rate marks him in the #36 percentile among receivers.

The New Orleans Saints have allowed 8.40 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #20-highest among NFL opponents.

The New Orleans Saints rank #11-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.

As a unit, the Saints cornerbacks rank #11 in pass coverage.

In a neutral context, Miami has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ projects Parker to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time. He projects for 57.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $6.84. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.

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