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DeVante Parker

DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
Right now, DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Over: it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.
  • In terms of playing time, Parker ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.7% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Parker ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.8% of Miami's dropbacks this season.
  • In terms of earning targets, Parker ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.3% of passes this season.
  • The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.
  • The Saints's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 170 yards per game this season.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.1% of the time (#7 in the NFL).
  • THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 62.2% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
  • Miami's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
  • Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

  • CONS:
  • As a unit, the Saints safeties rank #10 in pass coverage.
  • The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 60.6 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.
  • The Dolphins enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
  • Miami's O-Line grades out as the #27-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Parker open.
  • Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).

  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Parker for a -2.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Parker ranks in the #60 percentile and has put up 8.50 yards per target this season.
  • Parker's 60.8% completion rate marks him in the #36 percentile among receivers.
  • The New Orleans Saints have allowed 8.40 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #20-highest among NFL opponents.
  • The New Orleans Saints rank #11-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.
  • As a unit, the Saints cornerbacks rank #11 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, Miami has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.

    THE BLITZ projects Parker to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time. He projects for 57.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $6.84. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.

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