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DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Parker has been on the field for 81.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.8% of Miami's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 22.0% -- #85 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #2-most yards per target (9.36) against the Jets this season.The Jets have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.9% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.New York Jets safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 66.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).The Dolphins offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Miami is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Parker's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami has faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Parker is projected for 1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.77 yards per target this season, ranking in the #63 percentile.Parker has been in the #44 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.6% completion rate.New York's defense has allowed 153 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#22-most in football).The Miami Dolphins have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Dolphins project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.7% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 68.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.25. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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