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DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 36.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jackson is projected for 6.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 11.53 yards per target this season, ranking in the #99 percentile.Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.3% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given the QB 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas has faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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Jackson has been on the field for 29.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 31.1% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #29 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 5.4% -- #30 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.1% of their targets this season, (#28-most in the league).The Raiders project to run 60.6 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.Jackson's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jackson has been in the #38 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.2% completion rate.Denver's defense has allowed 155 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.92) against the Broncos this season.Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 39.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.70 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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