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Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 85.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tennessee's ranks #3 in that regard this season.His 59.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #90 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 87.0% this year puts him in the #100 percentile among running backs.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.The Titans enter as a 4.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Tennessee has been the #2-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 45.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 45.8% of their plays.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Henry finds himself in the #100 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 117 yards.In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Henry for a -9.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Titans have played in 4 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #17-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Henry to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time. He projects for 99.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.01. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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