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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 250.5 @ -115.
  • Carr has passed for 287 yards per game this year, #4-best in the league.
  • He's been the #11-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Carr has been #10 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.53 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 66.3% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Raiders offensive line has given Derek Carr 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-best in football).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
  • Denver's cornerbacks grade out as the #25-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Broncos defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Broncos linebackers have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • The Raiders project to run 60.6 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.
  • Derek Carr's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
  • The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #8-best pass defense this season, allowing 231 yards per game through the air.
  • The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5% of their targets, ranking #2-best in the NFL.
  • Denver's linebackers grade out as the #4-best in pass coverage this year.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Denver Broncos defense ranks #11-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.45.
  • Denver's safeties grade out as the #18-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

    THE BLITZ sees Carr putting up 300.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $29.14. Its return on investment would yield +25%.

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