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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 250.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Carr has passed for 287 yards per game this year, #4-best in the league.He's been the #11-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Carr has been #10 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.53 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.3% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given Derek Carr 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).Denver's cornerbacks grade out as the #25-best in pass coverage this year.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Broncos linebackers have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Raiders project to run 60.6 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.Derek Carr's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #8-best pass defense this season, allowing 231 yards per game through the air.The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5% of their targets, ranking #2-best in the NFL.Denver's linebackers grade out as the #4-best in pass coverage this year.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Denver Broncos defense ranks #11-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.45.Denver's safeties grade out as the #18-best in pass coverage this year.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Carr putting up 300.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $29.14. Its return on investment would yield +25%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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