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Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 14.0 yards.
  • Robinson has been in the #72 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.8% completion rate.
  • Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chiefs project to run 66.5 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 70.9% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Robinson's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • CONS:
  • His target share this season has been 5.6% -- #31 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles's defense has allowed 133 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.59) against the Chargers this season.
  • Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.
  • Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).

  • Robinson has been on the field for 57.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 61.7% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for 0.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.18 yards per target this season, ranking in the #51 percentile.
  • The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.8% of their targets this season, (#20-most in the league).
  • Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 17.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.39. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.

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