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Dede Westbrook Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Dede Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Westbrook is projected for 5.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.0% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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Westbrook has been on the field for 11.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #9 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 20.1% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #19 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 4.0% -- #23 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 4.08 yards per target this season, ranking in the #2 percentile.Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Westbrook's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Westbrook has been in the #36 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.4% completion rate.Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 157 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #12-most yards per target (8.65) against the Steelers this season.The Vikings project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 24.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.78. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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