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Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
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Right now, Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 220.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Mills's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.Houston's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.In a neutral context, Houston has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Texans are a 10.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Houston to drop back to pass on 65.5% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Houston's offensive has kept pressure off Davis Mills for 2.26 seconds on average this year (#1-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Texans have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).Tennessee's #25-ranked pass defense has allowed 265 passing yards per game this year.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive tackles rank #30 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's linebackers rank #28 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #30-best in the league, Mills has passed for192 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Mills has been #31 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.39 yards per target.The Houston Texans are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.6% of the time (#28 in the NFL).Houston's O-Line grades out as the #26-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Tennessee has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.8% of their targets, which ranks them #10-best in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans have had the #2-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #9-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive ends rank #9 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Titans, they've stacked the box on 9.9% of their plays this season, #25-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #22-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.1% clip.Houston has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.In terms of passing efficiency, Tennessee's defense is #20-best. This is because they allowed 7.74 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tennessee Titans have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mills to exceed his player prop total 61.6% of the time. He projects for 252.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $17.44. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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