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Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
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Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 223.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 238.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 223.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Texans offensive line has given Davis Mills 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.2% of their targets, ranking #29 in the NFL.Jacksonville's defense has been #27-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.25 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #25-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Mills has passed for 192 yards per game this year, #30-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mills has been #31 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.37 yards per target.The Texans project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).Davis Mills's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #24-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.4% clip.Houston has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #14-best pass defense this season, allowing 248 yards per game through the air.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #13-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #22-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 242.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.55. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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