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Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
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Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 219.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Texans offensive line has given Davis Mills 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.7%).The Seattle Seahawks enter this game with the #32-best pass defense this season, allowing 288 yards per game through the air.The Seahawks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.4% of their targets, ranking #32 in the NFL.Seattle's defense has been #25-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.18 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #29-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box on 20.1% of their plays this season, #4-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Mills has passed for 177 yards per game this year, #32-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mills has been #33 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.34 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).Davis Mills's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #23-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.1% clip.Houston has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Texans project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #15-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 256.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.70. It's return on investment would yeild 21%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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