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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
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Right now, David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 68.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 77.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #99 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 65.1% this year puts him in the #95 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Montgomery for a 10.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Chicago has been the #8-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.4% run rate in a neutral context.The Vikings defense has allowed 131 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #25-least in football.The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 4.73 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #26-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Minnesota have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Minnesota have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Montgomery finds himself in the #91 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 65 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Bears enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #25-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.2% of their plays.The defensive tackles of Minnesota have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Minnesota have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Vikings have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #10-most in the NFL this year at 16.7% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Chicago's ranks #12 in that regard this season.This year, the Bears have played in the #11-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Chicago could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (13.2% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Montgomery to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time. He projects for 71.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.14 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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