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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Adams has been on the field for 89.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.4% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 33.6% -- #100 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.69 yards per target this season, ranking in the #84 percentile.Adams has been in the #77 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.6% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.31) against the Bears this season.Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 64.1% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Green Bay is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Adams is projected for -1.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers.Chicago's defense has allowed 165 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.1% of their targets this season, (#15-most in the league).Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.The Packers project to run 60.8 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 57.7% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Adams's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Packers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 92.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.17 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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