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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 47.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 46.8% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Williams for a 17.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 63.7 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The Chiefs enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (5.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Kansas City's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Kansas City has been the #31-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.4% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #31-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.3% of their plays.The Bengals defense has allowed 92 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #4-least in football.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.11 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #7-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams finds himself in the #34 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 30 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Kansas City's ranks #14 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 35.7% this year puts him in the #62 percentile among running backs.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Bengals have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #12-most in the NFL this year at 15.7% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Williams to exceed his player prop total 54.0% of the time. He projects for 54.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.10. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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