| |
Dare Ogunbowale Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Dare Ogunbowale Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 40.2 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Ogunbowale for a 43.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The New England Patriots have allowed 4.64 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #24-best in the metric this season.Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (11.1% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Jacksonville's ranks #28 in that regard this season.His 16.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #23 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 9.5% this year puts him in the #24 percentile among running backs.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 58.8 plays in this matchup, the #31-most on the game slate.The Jaguars are a 17.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #29-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.3% of their plays.The defensive tackles of New England have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Patriots have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #6-most in the NFL this year at 18.8% of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This year, the Jaguars have played in the #17-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Jacksonville could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.Jacksonville has been the #15-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.7% run rate in a neutral context.The Patriots defense has allowed 120 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #22-least in football.The defensive ends of New England have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New England have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of New England have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Ogunbowale to exceed his player prop total 59.7% of the time. He projects for 49.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.43. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
