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Daniel Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Daniel Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 233.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 226.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The New York Giants have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.New York is a 3.5-point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 64.8% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).The Giants offensive line has given Daniel Jones 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.5% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.9%).The Eagles have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.7% of their targets, ranking #31 in the NFL.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #28-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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CONS:
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He's been the #24-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.7% clip.Efficiency-wise, Jones has been #27 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.61 yards per target.Daniel Jones's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Philadelphia's defense has been #8-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.48 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Eagles linebackers have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Philadelphia's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #3-quickest in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has passed for 219 yards per game this year, #22-best in the league.This offenses projects to pass 61.2% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Philadelphia Eagles enter this game with the #12-best pass defense this season, allowing 245 yards per game through the air.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box on 14.5% of their plays this season, #18-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 246.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.58. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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