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D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 53.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 66.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 53.8% this year puts him in the #85 percentile among running backs.This year, the Lions have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #4-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Detroit Lions are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.Detroit has been the #3-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 43.3% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #10-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 44.2% of their plays.Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.4% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Detroit's ranks #32 in that regard this season.The Lions are a 9.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 3.89 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #3-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Seattle have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Seattle have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Seattle have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Seahawks have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #4-most in the NFL this year at 20.1% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Swift finds himself in the #66 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 49 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Swift for a -3.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Detroit has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.The Seahawks defense has allowed 115 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #18-least in football.The defensive ends of Seattle have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Swift to exceed his player prop total 59.2% of the time. He projects for 61.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.39. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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