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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.
  • Sutton has been on the field for 85.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 90.5% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 19.1% -- #79 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.8% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).
  • The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).

  • CONS:
  • Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Broncos project to run 59.8 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.
  • Denver is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sutton is projected for -2.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #29 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.78 yards per target this season, ranking in the #63 percentile.
  • Sutton has been in the #40 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.0% completion rate.
  • Cincinnati's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.65) against the Bengals this season.
  • Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.5% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.0% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Sutton's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 44.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.99. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.

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