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Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 34.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -120.
  • The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #10 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 41.5% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Atlanta has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Falcons project to run 65.8 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.
  • Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Falcons passing the ball more than usual.
  • Atlanta is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 30.2% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 77 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 3.84 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#3-least in football).
  • Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Buccaneers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Patterson has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 43.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 9.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.1% of the time in this contest.
  • Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.10. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.

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