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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 34.1 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #10 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 41.5% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.Atlanta has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 65.8 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.
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CONS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Falcons passing the ball more than usual.Atlanta is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 30.2% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 77 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 3.84 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#3-least in football).Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Patterson has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 43.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 9.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 38.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.1% of the time in this contest.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.10. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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