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Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 99.5 (-115/-105), with an implied projection of 100.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 106.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 99.5 @ -105.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Kupp ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 94.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Kupp ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.9% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Kupp ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 32.7% of passes this season.Kupp ranks in the #97 percentile and has put up 10.36 yards per target this season.Kupp's 75.3% completion rate marks him in the #90 percentile among receivers.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 67.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.7% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Kupp open.
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CONS:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 7.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #2-highest among NFL opponents.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank #7-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 62.7%.As a unit, the Buccaneers cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Buccaneers safeties rank #4 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Kupp for a 0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Buccaneers's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 149 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Kupp to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time. He projects for 110.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.36. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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