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Cole Beasley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Cole Beasley Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 37.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of earning targets, Beasley ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 19.0% of passes this season.Beasley's 77.5% completion rate marks him in the #92 percentile among receivers.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 2-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #27-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.9 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.6% of the time (#3 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 61.7% of their plays in this game (#6-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Beasley for a -6.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Beasley ranks in the #22 percentile and has put up 7.16 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #7 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Beasley ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 59.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Beasley ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 73.2% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.49 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #16-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.9%.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #11 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Beasley open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Beasley to exceed his player prop total 57.9% of the time. He projects for 35.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.65. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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