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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 50.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among running backs.He has received 53.9% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #18 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 66.5 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 144 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.88 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.
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CONS:
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Edwards-Helaire has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 57 yards per game on the ground.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 29.1% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 29.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.7% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Chargers safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Edwards-Helaire is projected for -0.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.18 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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