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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 60.4 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 62.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -110.
  • He has been on the field for 52.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 53.1% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #21 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #27 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Edwards-Helaire has been the #15-leading rusher this season, tallying 61 yards per game on the ground.
  • Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 28.7% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.7% of the time in this contest.
  • The Denver Broncos have ranked #8 against the run this year, holding opponents to 103 yards per game on the ground.
  • Broncos defensive ends have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Broncos linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Broncos safeties have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Edwards-Helaire is projected for -2.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Chiefs project to run 62.0 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 37.3% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of efficiency, Denver's defense has allowed 4.35 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#13-least in football).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $2.43. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.

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