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Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Hubbard for a 17.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Carolina has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Carolina's ranks #29 in that regard this season.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Carolina Panthers are projected to run 60.8 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.The Panthers are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #30-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.9% of their plays.The Saints defense has allowed 94 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 3.74 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #1-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New Orleans have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Carolina has faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (20.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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Hubbard finds himself in the #42 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 36 yards.His 39.5% snap rate this year puts him in the #63 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 36.7% this year puts him in the #65 percentile among running backs.This year, the Panthers have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Carolina's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Carolina has been the #12-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 40.4% run rate in a neutral context.The safeties of New Orleans have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Saints have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #19-most in the NFL this year at 13.3% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hubbard to exceed his player prop total 55.4% of the time. He projects for 42.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.07. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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