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Chuba Hubbard

Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 38.2 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -120.
  • The Panthers project to run 65.8 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 40.9% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.9% of the time in this contest.
  • Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • The Carolina Panthers offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Carolina is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 85 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 4.02 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#6-least in football).
  • Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Buccaneers safeties have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked box 20.7% of the time this season -- #4-most in football.

  • Hubbard has been the #41-leading rusher this season, tallying 38 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 38.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #63 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 36.4% of Carolina's carries this year -- #38 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hubbard is projected for 9.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Carolina has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Carolina Panthers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offenses projects to runs 41.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 50.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.92. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.

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