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Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 38.2 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Panthers project to run 65.8 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.9% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.9% of the time in this contest.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Carolina Panthers offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Carolina is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 85 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 4.02 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#6-least in football).Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers safeties have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked box 20.7% of the time this season -- #4-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Hubbard has been the #41-leading rusher this season, tallying 38 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 38.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #63 percentile among running backs.He has received 36.4% of Carolina's carries this year -- #38 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hubbard is projected for 9.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Carolina has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Carolina Panthers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to runs 41.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 50.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.92. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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