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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 57.4 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Kirk has been on the field for 67.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 77.2% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 17.2% -- #71 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.98 yards per target this season, ranking in the #89 percentile.Kirk has been in the #85 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.5% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (8.98) against the Lions this season.Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.The Cardinals project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.6% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).Arizona is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.3% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kirk is projected for 2.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.Detroit's defense has allowed 153 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).Kirk's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.65. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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