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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Kirk has been on the field for 67.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 77.0% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 17.8% -- #74 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.09 yards per target this season, ranking in the #88 percentile.Kirk has been in the #92 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 78.7% completion rate.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.1% of their targets this season, (#4-most in the league).The Cardinals project to run 67.0 plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kirk is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 157 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (7.95) against the Rams this season.Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 60.7% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Kirk's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.10. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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