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Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-120/-115), with an implied projection of 56.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Arizona's ranks #11 in that regard this season.His 51.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #78 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Edmonds for a 30.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Cardinals have played in 7 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #9-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 67.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The defensive tackles of Dallas have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Dallas have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (7.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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Edmonds finds himself in the #69 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 50 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Cardinals enter as a 6.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #23-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.6% of their plays.The Cowboys defense has allowed 105 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #9-least in football.The defensive ends of Dallas have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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His carry rate of 32.6% this year puts him in the #56 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.Arizona has been the #17-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.7% run rate in a neutral context.The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 4.46 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #16-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Dallas have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Cowboys have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #15-most in the NFL this year at 15.1% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Edmonds to exceed his player prop total 60.1% of the time. He projects for 69.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.22. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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