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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 225.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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This year, the Colts have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.Indianapolis's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Las Vegas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, which ranks them #27-best in the NFL.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #28-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive tackles rank #27 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Raiders, they've stacked the box on 22.2% of their plays this season, #1-most in football.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Colts are a 8.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time (#24 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 54.7% of their plays in this game (#25-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's #4-ranked pass defense has allowed 222 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Las Vegas's defense is #3-best. This is because they allowed 6.97 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive ends rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #28-best in the league, Wentz has passed for208 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #28-best in the league, completing passes at a 61.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Wentz has been #26 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.78 yards per target.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 62.4 plays in this matchup, the #21-most on the game slate.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #21-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off Carson Wentz for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #15-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #16-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wentz to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time. He projects for 232.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.23 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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