|
Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 213.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 210.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
Indianapolis has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
Wentz has passed for 207 yards per game this year, #28-best in the league.He's been the #28-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 61.5% clip.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Arizona Cardinals enter this game with the #4-best pass defense this season, allowing 224 yards per game through the air.The Arizona Cardinals defense ranks #6-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.24.Cardinals linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
Efficiency-wise, Wentz has been #27 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.71 yards per target.The Colts project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Carson Wentz's offensive line has been #21 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given Carson Wentz 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).The Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, ranking #21-best in the NFL.Arizona's cornerbacks grade out as the #18-best in pass coverage this year.Arizona's safeties grade out as the #11-best in pass coverage this year.Arizona's linebackers grade out as the #13-best in pass coverage this year.Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
THE BLITZ sees Wentz putting up 232.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.45. Its return on investment would yield +9%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
|
|
|
|