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Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
 
 
 
Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 213.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 210.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Indianapolis has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Wentz has passed for 207 yards per game this year, #28-best in the league.
  • He's been the #28-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 61.5% clip.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Arizona Cardinals enter this game with the #4-best pass defense this season, allowing 224 yards per game through the air.
  • The Arizona Cardinals defense ranks #6-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.24.
  • Cardinals linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Efficiency-wise, Wentz has been #27 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.71 yards per target.
  • The Colts project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Carson Wentz's offensive line has been #21 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Colts offensive line has given Carson Wentz 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-best in football).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
  • The Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, ranking #21-best in the NFL.
  • Arizona's cornerbacks grade out as the #18-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Arizona's safeties grade out as the #11-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Arizona's linebackers grade out as the #13-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees Wentz putting up 232.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.3% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.45. Its return on investment would yield +9%.
     
     
     
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