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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 245.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Colts project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Indianapolis is a 3.0-point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 62.1% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 32.1% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.3% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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He's been the #26-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 62.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wentz has been #25 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.81 yards per target.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Tampa Bay's defense has been #5-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.11 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #7-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Wentz has passed for 219 yards per game this year, #21-best in the league.This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).Carson Wentz's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given Carson Wentz 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.8%).The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with the #16-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Tampa Bay's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #21-quickest in the NFL.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box on 13.1% of their plays this season, #21-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 262.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.13. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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