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Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 
 
 
Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 245.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Colts project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.
  • Indianapolis is a 3.0-point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 62.1% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 32.1% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.3% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.
  • Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • He's been the #26-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 62.2% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Wentz has been #25 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.81 yards per target.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Tampa Bay's defense has been #5-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.11 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #7-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Wentz has passed for 219 yards per game this year, #21-best in the league.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).
  • Carson Wentz's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Colts offensive line has given Carson Wentz 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.8%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with the #16-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Tampa Bay's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #21-quickest in the NFL.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box on 13.1% of their plays this season, #21-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 262.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.13. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
     
     
     
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