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Braxton Berrios

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 32.8 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Berrios is projected for 7.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Berrios has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 77.4% completion rate.
  • Miami's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).
  • The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.29 yards per target this season, ranking in the #27 percentile.
  • Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Jets project to run 61.9 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).

  • Berrios has been on the field for 31.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 36.3% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #36 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 8.9% -- #48 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.49) against the Dolphins this season.
  • The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.7% of their targets this season, (#21-most in the league).
  • Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).
  • Berrios's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.2% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.33. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.

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