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Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 32.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Berrios is projected for 7.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.Berrios has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 77.4% completion rate.Miami's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.29 yards per target this season, ranking in the #27 percentile.Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.The Jets project to run 61.9 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Berrios has been on the field for 31.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 36.3% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #36 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 8.9% -- #48 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.49) against the Dolphins this season.The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.7% of their targets this season, (#21-most in the league).Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 62.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).Berrios's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.33. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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