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Brandon Zylstra Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
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Brandon Zylstra Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (110/-140) with an implied projection of 16.6 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ 110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Zylstra is projected for 4.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 11.42 yards per target this season, ranking in the #97 percentile.Zylstra has been in the #99 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 85.3% completion rate.Carolina is a 14.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina has faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.7%).
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CONS:
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He has run a route on 29.9% of Carolina's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.Buffalo's defense has allowed 127 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.46) against the Bills this season.The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.4% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Zylstra's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Zylstra has been on the field for 33.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 5.9% -- #34 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Carolina Panthers have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Panthers project to run 62.9 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Panthers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 21.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.95. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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