| |
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 225.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 230.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 225.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
This year, at #13-best in the league, Roethlisberger has passed for242 yards per game.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.The Steelers enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #7-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Pittsburgh's offensive has kept pressure off Ben Roethlisberger for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Steelers have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).Baltimore's #32-ranked pass defense has allowed 290 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Baltimore's defense is #30-best. This is because they allowed 8.64 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #27-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #29-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's defensive ends rank #26 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Ravens, they've stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
In terms of efficiency, Roethlisberger has been #30 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.48 yards per target.Pittsburgh has run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Baltimore has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.6% of their targets, which ranks them #8-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's linebackers rank #7 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
In terms of Completion%, he has been the #21-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.4% clip.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time (#13 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 60.6% of their plays in this game (#18-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #14-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's defensive tackles rank #21 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Roethlisberger to exceed his player prop total 50.5% of the time. He projects for 226.7 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.53 with a negative ROI of -6%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
