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Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 250.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 258.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Roethlisberger has passed for 254 yards per game this year, #12-best in the league.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.4% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ben Roethlisberger's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given Ben Roethlisberger 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.1%).The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #25-best pass defense this season, allowing 268 yards per game through the air.Minnesota's defense has been #27-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.30 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #32-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Efficiency-wise, Roethlisberger has been #27 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.74 yards per target.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their targets, ranking #7 in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #22-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.5% clip.The Steelers project to run 62.7 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).The Minnesota Vikings have had the #13-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Vikings defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Vikings linebackers have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 275.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.46. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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