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Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
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Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 255.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 258.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Roethlisberger has passed for 257 yards per game this year, #11-best in the league.Pittsburgh has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Pittsburgh is a 4.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.5% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ben Roethlisberger's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given Ben Roethlisberger 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.1%).The Baltimore Ravens enter this game with the #29-best pass defense this season, allowing 279 yards per game through the air.Baltimore's defense has been #28-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.44 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #29-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Efficiency-wise, Roethlisberger has been #29 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.69 yards per target.The Steelers project to run 60.2 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5% of their targets, ranking #2 in the NFL.Ravens linebackers have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #24-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.2% clip.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).The Baltimore Ravens have had the #16-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #13-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 236.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $9.70. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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