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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-115/-115).
PROS:
  • Efficiency-wise, Mayfield has been #14 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.36 yards per target.
  • Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Cleveland is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Baker Mayfield's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).

  • CONS:
  • The Cleveland Browns have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Browns project to run 59.0 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.8% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).
  • The Packers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.4% of their targets, ranking #8-best in the NFL.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense ranks #5-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.18.
  • Green Bay's linebackers grade out as the #3-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Packers defensive tackles have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Packers linebackers have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box on 5.5% of their plays this season, #31-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Mayfield has passed for 211 yards per game this year, #26-best in the league.
  • He's been the #27-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.0% clip.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.0% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
  • The Green Bay Packers enter this game with the #11-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.
  • Green Bay's cornerbacks grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Green Bay's safeties grade out as the #13-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Packers defensive ends have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees Mayfield putting up 216.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.47 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
     
     
     
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