| |
Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-115/-115).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Efficiency-wise, Mayfield has been #14 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.36 yards per target.Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Cleveland is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Baker Mayfield's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Cleveland Browns have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 59.0 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 58.8% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).The Packers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.4% of their targets, ranking #8-best in the NFL.The Green Bay Packers defense ranks #5-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.18.Green Bay's linebackers grade out as the #3-best in pass coverage this year.Packers defensive tackles have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Packers linebackers have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box on 5.5% of their plays this season, #31-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Mayfield has passed for 211 yards per game this year, #26-best in the league.He's been the #27-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.0% clip.This offenses projects to pass 59.0% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.The Green Bay Packers enter this game with the #11-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.Green Bay's cornerbacks grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.Green Bay's safeties grade out as the #13-best in pass coverage this year.Packers defensive ends have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees Mayfield putting up 216.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.47 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
