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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 66.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among running backs.He has received 57.1% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #16 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bengals safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Ekeler has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 31.7% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.4% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 91 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.15 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for 7.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Chargers project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.Bengals linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.01. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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