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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 66.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 57.1% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #16 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Bengals defensive ends have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bengals safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Ekeler has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense runs the ball 31.7% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.7% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 34.4% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 91 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.15 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).
  • Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for 7.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Chargers project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
  • Bengals linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.01. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.

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