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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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St. Brown has been on the field for 73.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 81.5% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 19.7% -- #81 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, St. Brown is projected for 8.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.St. Brown has been in the #92 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 77.4% completion rate.Atlanta's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.1% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.Detroit is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.34 yards per target this season, ranking in the #29 percentile.Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.7% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.31) against the Falcons this season.The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.9 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.St. Brown's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 72.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $40.25. It's return on investment would yeild 35%.
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